The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists published their latest iteration of the Doomsday Clock, and moved the clock a second forward.

Originally the main threat the BAS tracked was nuclear annihilation.  Later, the added climate change and biological threats (e.g., COVID).  Now they’ve added AI for this iteration.

An array of other disruptive technologies advanced last year in ways that make the world more dangerous. Systems that incorporate artificial intelligence in military targeting have been used in Ukraine and the Middle East, and several countries are moving to integrate artificial intelligence into their militaries. Such efforts raise questions about the extent to which machines will be allowed to make military decisions—even decisions that could kill on a vast scale, including those related to the use of nuclear weapons. Tensions among the major powers are increasingly reflected in competition in space, where China and Russia are actively developing anti-satellite capabilities; the United States has alleged that Russia has tested a satellite with a dummy warhead on it, suggesting plans to place nuclear weapons in orbit.

The clock is…problematic, if we’re being honest.  You have a group of scientists making their analysis of world events, but it boils down to their opinion.  There’s no empirical factors or measured data.  It’s just a bunch of guys sitting around in a room.

There’s also little consistency over time.  For example, I think most historians would say that the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) was the closest the world has come to nuclear war.  But the clock was only 7 minutes to midnight then.  Now we’re at 89 seconds.  So we’re closer to nuclear annihilation than we were then?  No.

The scientists have also kind of boxed themselves into a corner.  Today they moved it one second…and they have limited room to increase.  If this was truly scientific, they could rescale, but it’s more about generating publicity and drawing attention to what these scientists feel is important.

Is this really a useful exercise?  It’s not like the world is not aware of these threats.  Piling on with dramatic “we’re so close to the edge!” scary headlines is not helpful.

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raindog308

Dread Lord of LowEnd Content at LowEndBox

I'm raindog308, techno polymath and long-time LowEndTalk community Administrator. My technical interests include all things Unix, perl, python, golang, shell scripting, vintage operating systems such as MVS, and relational database systems such as Oracle, PostgreSQL, and MySQL.

I also enjoy using LEBs! I have an empire of little guys for VPNs, larger guys for apps, and big guys for databases and storage. When I'm not in front a screen I'm into German Shepherd dogs, quality knives, target shooting, theology, tabletop roleplaying games, and forest hiking.

I enjoy writing technical articles here on LowEndBox to help people get more out of their systems. You can find me on LowEndTalk @raindog308

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