Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former safety researcher at ChatGPT creator OpenAI, has published a stunning series of articles forecasting Artificial Generalized Intelligence (AGI) – followed very shortly by Arficial Generalized Superintelligence (ASI) by 2027.
And he has a lot of charts, graphs, and links to explain his reasoning.
The paper is available online here:
Just reading the summaries is amazing. Here are the summaries for the first two articles:
AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027.
AI progress won’t stop at human-level. Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into ≤1 year. We would rapidly go from human-level to vastly superhuman AI systems. The power—and the peril—of superintelligence would be dramatic.
And you’re only on part 2 of 10 at that point.
Related Posts:
Is This the AI Nuclear Winter?
About Those Microsoft Early Buyouts...
Large-Scale Thefts of AI GPUs are Surging and the Crimes are Increasingly Sophisticated
Anthropic's IPO is Coming Soon. Should You Buy? Here are the Four Most Important Things to Think Abo...
Mathematicians Upset About OpenAI's PR Stunt Need a Chill Pill
My Books Were Used to Train AI. How Should I Feel About That?
raindog308 is a longtime community LETizen, technical writer, and self-described techno polymath. With deep roots in the *nix world, he has a passion for systems both modern and vintage, ranging from Unix, Perl, Python, and Golang to shell scripting and mainframe-era operating systems like MVS. He’s equally comfortable with relational database systems, having spent years working with Oracle, PostgreSQL, and MySQL.
As an avid user of LowEndBox providers, raindog308 runs an empire of LEBs, from tiny boxes for VPNs, to mid-sized instances for application hosting, and heavyweight servers for data storage and complex databases. He brings both technical rigor and real-world experience to every piece he writes.
Beyond the command line, raindog308 has a life-long love of German Shepherd Dogs, high-quality knives, target shooting, theology, tabletop RPGs, playing guitar, and hiking in deep, quiet forests.
His goal with every article is to help users, from beginners to seasoned sysadmins, get more value, performance, and enjoyment out of their infrastructure.
You can find him daily in the forums at LowEndTalk under the handle @raindog308.
Leave a Reply