RAM prices are brutal now.

There’s a nice site which tracks RAM prices over time, and the chart is a hockey stick on steroids with a side habit of snorting coke.

That’s for DDR4-3200 2x32GB.  What would have cost something like $130 back in August of 2024 is nearly $600 today.

I don’t need to tell you that the culprit is AI.  The AI buildout is happening so rapidly that RAM manufacturers are getting squeezed on supply.  RAM manufacturing is not like a lot of commodities where you can just add more shifts at the factory or mine and a few weeks later you’ve caught up.  Making semiconductors requires large capital investments with specialized gear.

And there’s a double whammy when you consider how those factories are made.  Let me give you a parallel: some years ago, there was an ammunition shortage.  Prices of nearly all ammo got very expensive, because of the US military using a ton of capacity and some new regulations.  The most popular handgun ammo, 9mm, became expensive like everything else.  But .380 became virtually unavailable.  Why?  Because 9mm and .380 were made using the same machines and there was such red-hot demand for 9mm that companies decided to just run 9mm and not make any .380.

In a similar fashion, in the RAM market today, the most in-demand RAM are the biggest, fastest sticks because that’s what AI servers are using.  DDR5-5600 2x32GB has gone from (Aug 2024-Dec 2025) about $200 to about $800, a 400% increase.  But DDR5-5600 2x16GB (which is unlikely to be used in AI servers) has seen the same increase, as have other smaller packages.  It’s not a perfect parallel to the example with ammo I gave because it’s a completely different market and manufacturing process, but my point is that factories are going to prioritize their most profitable products.  Ain’t nobody got time for the consumer!

Where will it end and when?

The good news is that these prices won’t stay at these levels forever.  The world is not running low on silicon.  The bad news is that unless there is a dramatic AI bubble crash, we could see these prices last for a considerable time – maybe into 2027.  The suppliers are being very disciplined about not rushing to build out capacity, because the last thing they want is to be stuck with idle factories.  Many of the biggest buyers have locked in prices through long-term contracts, so there isn’t a ton of screaming among the companies that are buying by the container.

It’s just us DIY types and the consumer that is feeling the pain.  My guess is that we don’t see real relief until 2027 unless there is a dramatic popping of the AI bubble.

What is your predication?  Let us know in the comments below!

raindog308

Raindog308 is a longtime LowEndTalk community administrator, technical writer, and self-described techno polymath. With deep roots in the *nix world, he has a passion for systems both modern and vintage, ranging from Unix, Perl, Python, and Golang to shell scripting and mainframe-era operating systems like MVS. He’s equally comfortable with relational database systems, having spent years working with Oracle, PostgreSQL, and MySQL.

As an avid user of LowEndBox providers, Raindog runs an empire of LEBs, from tiny boxes for VPNs, to mid-sized instances for application hosting, and heavyweight servers for data storage and complex databases. He brings both technical rigor and real-world experience to every piece he writes.

Beyond the command line, Raindog is a lover of German Shepherds, high-quality knives, target shooting, theology, tabletop RPGs, and hiking in deep, quiet forests.

His goal with every article is to help users, from beginners to seasoned sysadmins, get more value, performance, and enjoyment out of their infrastructure.

You can find him daily in the forums at LowEndTalk under the handle @raindog308.